novick : experience

He's an Expert. He's got to be right!

Sorry. But the headline and the graph just don't jibe. Today's Times reports Signs of Upturn for the Dollar; that it's "creeping" back up against the Euro. "Creepy" is more like it. I mean, what kind of metrics are these experts suggesting? There's been a precipitous slide since 2002. Temporary stabilization has repeatedly been followed by further loss. Okay. I'm no expert when it comes to economics [heck, i don't even have enough cash to bother balancing my checkbook], but even a three year old could identify this trend. Looks like it's blipping up before another crash. In any event, it took six years to get us here [another great legacy of the Bush administration]. Regained parity will not be a quick fix regardless of what the experts say.

Personally I'd prefer to hear, "I don't know" instead of the bullshit that's being served up.

How much is that despot in the window?

I recently had the privilege to hear Joe Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes discuss their new book, The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict. From their handout:

In contrast with previous wars -- where taxes were raised to pay for incresed government spending -- as America went inot the current conflict, taxes were redcuced. As a result, the Iraq war has been financed by borrowing, adding to our already-enormous national debt...The authors conservatively estimate that the total cost of the war will be more than $3 trillion.

Some of the hidden costs involve the shell game that the White House is playing. eg: vets are cared for by the VA which is outside the war budget. Moreover, political costs and the damage to our country's good name are hard if not impossible to calculate in $ terms.

Also on the ticket was Paul Rieckhoff who heads up the IAVA [Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America]. Leslie Gelb describes him as

a vet who's come home from combat in Iraq, still fiercely pro-American and pro-military, but justifiably furious at the Bush administration for sending Americans off to war without a viable plan for success.

The McCain/Clinton ticket endorses an $.184 gas tax holiday. What are they smoking?

The Pentagon's Numbers Game

The current charade in D.C. that’s attempting to pass as foreign policy is an embarrassment. GW’s whipping boy danced through Congress towing the party line about the troop reduction that’s not a reduction but really just a running out of soldiers. And, typically, in all the rants and raves about numbers of bodies on the ground -- and no mention of the thousands of bodies in the ground -- the issue of “contractors” continues to fly under the radar. Yeah, sure...150k US troops on the ground + an additional estimated 150k contractors: bodyguards, support personal, security, operations, intelligence, wet-behind-the-ears college kids from the NeoCon machine and god knows what else.

Bush is scheduled to go on TV tonight to announce adjustments to his [non] policy based on Petraeus’ report. Gimme a break. And, while critics are slinging mud at the gallant General intimating that he violated the Geneva Convention, this juror is convinced it’s the Administration's PR team who should be hung out to dry. Speech writers, brand consultants, pollsters and spin doctors all.

Tradin' in the Traders

Robert Reich had a great guest commentary piece on Marketplace discussing the necessity of America to reward innovational entrepreneurs in new product and service development. [Echoes of Juan Enriquez’ wonderful book, As the Future Catches You]. Most of the focus today is on making money from money: derivatives, private equity buyouts, leveraged equities, arbitrages, shorting, et al. ”It’s all about making money,“ I often hear from coworkers, colleagues and other peers. While the ”value + values“ crowd is getting more attention, they are still a minority. The popular hedonistic [note LC] culture is fueled by sobriquets: Jay Z, Madonna, Survivor, CNN and others pump out the pap and the masses follow like lemmings; not questioning, not protesting, not listening to their hearts. Which brings me back to Reich’s piece.

The day before he broadcast the stock market tanked, explained away as a correction of the ”sub-prime mortgage“ cycle. [Funny how newscasters are always looking for explanations for changes in the market and are quick to point to single indicators or events. Fact is: they really don’t know]. Hedge funds and their managers have also been in the news, notably as exposéd in, Confessions of a Wall Street Shoeshine Boy. These are instruments of investment of which little is known or understood and which involve billions of dollars of investments. Few of the individual investors know how their money is being used and at times it so reminiscent of a Ponzi scheme that I am surprised the bums are not being arrested. These self-envisioned Masters of the Universe regrettably are above the law. They are providing the profits that are keeping the economy running. And the Fed is willing to bail them out when the money-lenders’ strategies go south.

As a society we maintain a manic compulsive fascination with luxury and a collective unwillingness to make the sacrifices necessary for global sustainability and peace. This is not the fault of religious extremists. It is ours alone and we have the power but not the will to change.